Good Start to Senate 14 Special Election

Well... So far the Senate 14 race is off to a much better start that I expected. The Haydon/KDP forces launched the first TV ad last night and not only is it positive, but it reflects the character and personality of the candidate.

Kelly appointed to judgeship – Step forward or back for KDP?

From the CJ: Gov. Steve Beshear Monday gave his political party a chance to gain another seat in the state Senate by appointing Republican Sen. Dan Kelly to a vacant judgeship.

There has been a lot of conjecture about this move in political circles for several months. Once Robin Webb squeaked out a victory in the 18th district special election there seemed little question that the nomination would happen.

The question now is can, the likely nominee, former state Representative Jodie Haydon win? Democrats have a 65% to 29% advantage over the Republicans in the district, but none of the current state representatives, senator or congressmen are democratic.

It appears that Haydon may have learned from recent mistakes and has been working the executive committees in Nelson, Mercer, Marion, Taylor and Washington for some time. This should avoid the problem from the 30th and 18th where small but vocal minorities in the democratic ranks where angered when it appeared that the Governor and KDP were trying to circumvent party bi-law by selecting the nominee without consulting local party leaders.

Next will be the question of campaign management. Both the losing 30th special election and the winning campaign in the 18th were marred by campaign chaos. The administration foisted amateur campaign managers on both candidates. Beshear fundraiser Dan Robinette in the 30th and Chad Aull from the constituent services office in the 18th. From what I have heard both first time campaign managers where thrown in the deep end to ensure that Frankfort could control the campaign and not the candidate.

Some of the shenanigans the 30th have been documented, but the 18th has gone without much analysis. From what I have been told Robin Webb and Aull were at each other’s throats through much of the campaign. The “experts” at the KDP nearly blew a double-digit lead with poor message control, worse staffing decisions (especially in field staff) and an awful negative campaign blitz in the final days. If it weren’t for Robin Webb and a handful of her long time supporters in Greenup County that election could have ended very differently.

One thing is for sure, money shouldn’t be a problem. Between the two sides I would expect to see well over $1 million spent in the next few weeks.

And the next question… If (and that a really big IF ) Haydon and the democrats can win this seat what’s next for Kentucky’s Magician-in-Chief Steve Beshear? Could Sen. Tom Buford be planing a party switch or a change in careers??? Is there another Senator looking to change parties or jobs?

It should make for a fascinating run up to the 2010 session.

Let the games begin!

Politics, Lies and Video Tape

The latest installment in the soap opera known as Kentucky’s U.S. Senate primary has had some knew twists and turns over the last few days.

Over the weekend it was revealed that Jack Conway had artificially inflated his fund raising numbers with a last minute 6-figure influx from his personal fortune.

Is there anything wrong with that? Legally no, ethically no. Then why is it a story? Because the Conway campaign made a very big deal last week about their superior fundraising. The media dutifully reported the story without close analysis. So they got a news cycle of ‘Conway continues fundraising advantage’ and not ‘Conway fundraising numbers drop over 50%.’

When one of there own (Al Cross) thought to push Conway on his personal contributions he got the vague answer “over six figures.” That news has slowly rippled through the media leaving a bad taste in their mouths. (When the actual numbers become available, in the next few days) we will find out just how much Conway inflated the numbers.

This leads us to yesterday and the Mongiardo Campaign’s effort to dump the recent You Tube videos at the feet of the Conway Campaign. By and large the media took Kim Gevendon’s story uncontested. Let’s for the time being give them the benefit of the doubt and say they’re version is accurate. What does it really mean? It means that at least one Conway person (volunteer or staffer ???) who is clearly very young decided to pile. At best, he embarrassed is candidate and at worst violated federal campaign finance law.

Conway’s newly minted campaign manager Charles Halloran hasn’t seem to learn anything from his predecessor’s missteps after Fancy Farm and while not denying the campaign’s involvement, which implies they were involved called the accusation silly.

It’s not that he wrong – the whole thing is silly. When the Conway Campaign choose to make hay over these heavily edited tapes they lost the moral high ground and if can be proven that they willfully violated federal campaign finance law they may end up loosing the election.

Question: Would the media have played up the Mongiardo version as much if Conway hadn’t mislead them last week about his fundraising? Personally, I don’t think so.

The lessons here: Don’t piss of the media, keep tighter control over your staff and keep you mouth shut around tape recorders.

Loosing My Blogging Virginity

Without sounding too pretentious the goal of this blog is to try and give a realistic take on political, social and cultural issues facing Kentucky. Too much of the media today is driven by financial need and issues are create where none exist just to drive revenue for the cooperate parent. More on this, the upcoming U.S. Senate race, Governor Race's and more...